The Euro is coiling up and will either continue moving lower in the confines of the downward channel or if it can break resistance, rally and snap the sequence. Cable has had an extended move off recent lows, but may be running out of steam to continue powering higher much longer. Aussie hit resistance and has since turned lower, more weakness may have the August low in focus soon.
- EURUSD coiling up for a move in confines of a channel
- GBPUSD extended move may be running out of power
- AUDUSD rolling over from resistance towards August low
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EURUSD coiling up for a move in confines of a channel
Euro price action of late has gotten increasingly choppy and congested. The compression could soon lead to a move, at least by Euro standards. EURUSD has been stuck in the confines of an ongoing channel which points to the path of least resistance as being lower. A break lower is seen as likely having the low at 10925 coming up quickly. It will be important to be cautious with any shorts one might have at that point, even if a new low is made, due to the propensity of the Euro to bounce shortly after swings to new lows materialize. If the wedge breaks to the top-side, then look for the upper bound of the channel to snap and price to rise towards the trend-line from Feb of last year and the 200-day MA.
EURUSD Daily Chart (Inside channel confines)
EURUSD 4-hr Chart (coiling)
GBPUSD extended move may be running out of power
Cable has been on a good run as of late, but is currently in a battle around the underside trend-line from the October 2016 flash-crash low (it also passes under the Jan flash-crash low). If price doesn’t stall here, then GBPUSD could rally on a bit further to the April 2018 trend-line/200-day combo over 12700. But given where Cable is now in the sequence off the lows, risk has quickly become skewed towards a potential pullback.
GBPUSD Daily Chart (watch upper parallel)
AUDUSD rolling over from resistance towards August low
AUDUSD found some sellers the May and June lows, which has it headed back lower now. It isn’t as weak as Kiwi, but could nevertheless catch up and trade to the September/ August lows situated under the 6700-level. From a tactical standpoint, existing shorts off resistance may want to sit tight to see if this is the case. The general trading bias for the near-term then remains skewed lower until we see some type of bullish reaction that negates recent selling.
AUDUSD Daily Chart (Sep/Aug lows next?)
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—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst
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