EUR/USD sellers reclaim near-term control, what’s next?

Technical Analysis

EUR/USD near-term bias is more bearish since overnight trading


The shift in near-term bias comes as sellers broke below the 100 and 200-hour MAs (red and blue lines respectively) yesterday in a move to test the 1.1000 handle.

Currently, the downside move is running into support around the figure level with the 61.8 retracement level @ 1.0997 providing added support for the time being.

So, what’s next for the pair?

Sellers may have seized near-term control again but with the Fed meeting tomorrow, price could potentially sit in this area (further support around 1.0985) close to 1.1000 before finding more direction this week.

Risks to any downside move from here can be defined and limited by the key hourly moving averages close to 1.1040 while any further downside extension requires a firm break below 1.1000 – and preferably 1.0985 – to see a potential test of lows around 1.0926-27.

Of note, there are also large expiries rolling off at 1.1000 today (€856m) and tomorrow (€1.6bn) so that may factor into price action being a bit more “sticky” at current levels ahead of the Fed decision tomorrow.

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