Buyers still have a little edge
The GBPUSD just traded to a new NY session high up at 1.23368. That is still short of the high for the day at 1.23429, and the high from yesterday at 1.23529.
Nevertheless, the consolidative down and up session has a little tilt to the upside still for the pair. What I like is that the dip off the high, stayed above the 50% retracement of the last trend move higher yesterday at 1.22812. So although a trend line was broke, the correction has been modest.
Looking at the daily chart below, the price is also back above the swing high from August at 1.23089. Although it did move below the level earlier today, the rebound higher has helped to move the price back above the level.
Now… the broader view from the daily chart – although showing bullishness off the low this week – has more of a downward slant.
The good news for the buyers off the daily chart is that:
- The price moved above downward sloping trend lines on Wednesday and Thursday and remains above those lines
- The price moved above the 38.2% of the move down from the June high at 1.2273 yesterday and remains above it as well.
- The price is above that August high at 1.23089.
There is no denying those steps.
The not so bullish bias is that:
- The price remains below the 50% of the last move down from the June high at 1.23704
- The price remains below the swng lows from mid July at 1.23815
Those are the next upside targets for the pair to get to and through.
In addition the retracements are just off the last move lower (from June high). The 38.2% of the move down from the March 2019 high is up at 1.2500 (not shown), and the falling 100 day MA is at 1.25417.
Now compared to a earlier in the week when the price was moving to new lows, the bias is higher. We don’t know how far it can go (is there a Brexit deal or solution out there/has the GBPUSD sold off too much?). Howevever, if the pair is going higher, it has work to do.
The price action and tools applied to the price action will help to show the way. Pay attention to the levels and look for breaks with more momentum.