Ray Dalio dials back his recession forecast probability – 75% chance no recession this year or next


Bloomberg with an overnight piece on the views of Bridgewater founder Ray Dalio

I double checked, even put new batteries in my abacus, and yep, that’s a  75% chance of no recession.

I also did some Googling. 

  • He was 35% chance of a recession back in February
  • 40% in August 

(according to an admittedly non comprehensive search)

On his latest forecast of 25/75:

  • central bankers will be limited in addressing it 

(it being a recession … I’d suggest ‘Return to Sender’ )

  • The Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and Bank of Japan “have to face the fact that when the next downturn comes there will not be the power to reverse it in the same way that existed before” 
  • recommends the Fed cut interest rates slowly

More at the link above


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