What’s the trade if there’s no announcement before the close?


That’s a tough call

Trump has promised an announcement ‘this afternoon’ in retaliation for the fresh Chinese tariffs and/or the lack of action from Powell.

What could it be? My guess is that it’s more tariffs. That’s something he’s familiar with and something he likes.

But the possibilities are endless. It could even be nothing if aides find a way to convince him to backtrack. He’s out tweeting at the moment, and he has certainly noticed the market move:

It’s such a tough call on how to go into the weekend if we don’t hear from him in time. You have so much risk on both sides but I’d guess that risk trades tick a bit higher.

However the trend here is clearly towards an escalation in the trade war and a corresponding deceleration in growth. So timing it all is secondary.


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