USD Muted Midweek
The US dollar has struck a far more subdued tone this week following the sharp decline last week in response to news of fresh US trade tariffs on China. The dollar was knocked heavily lower in the wake of Trump’s announcement and though has since stabilized, is yet to post a proper recovery. USD index trades 97.34 last, still sitting above the 97.11 level for now.
EUR Rallies on USD Weakness
EURUSD has benefited from the softer USD tone today with price moving higher again. However, for now, price is failing to break above the 1.1217 level which has capped price action all week. Recent data weakness has weighed on EUR sentiment, keeping the outlook skewed to the downside in the near term.
GBP Still Near Support
GBPUSD trades in the green over the early European session on Thursday. However, price remains glued to the lower trend line of the large falling wedge pattern which has framed price action over the last year. The 1.2073 support remains intact for now, though the outlook remains bearish given ongoing Brexit concerns.
Risk Recovery Stalling
Risk assets continue to grind higher along the recovery path following the equities dump on Monday. However, momentum is beginning to wane and SPX500 is stalling as it retests the broken 2890.56 level. While the index has recovered strongly off Monday’s lows, the outlook remains peppered with downside risks given the ongoing fears over the prospect of US/China trade talks breaking down.
Safe Haven Inflows Remain
Safe havens have had a more muted day today with JPY slightly firmer against USD while XAU has been a little weaker. Given the ongoing risk-averse tone, the outlook remains bullish for both gold and JPY in the near term. USDJPY trades 106.12 last, with price remaining supported by the 106.55 level for now. XAUUSD trades 1496.62 last, with price having softened a little from yesterday’s highs. The 1522.75 level is the next topside market to watch.
Crude Down on EIA Surplus
Oil prices remain pressured this morning. The latest EIA report yesterday contradicted earlier reports from the API as a crude surplus was reported in the US last week. This reading put an end to nearly two month’s worth of inventory drawdowns and saw heavy selling in crude. Oil has been under pressure from the escalation in trade war tensions between the US and China, with crude testing the 50.80 level yesterday, which has so far held as support.
High Betas Holding On
USDCAD continues to fight for higher ground though the rally has run into resistance at the 1.3300 level for now. Weaker oil prices and trade war concerns are keeping CAD pressured though expectations for further Fed easing are weighing on USD also.
AUDUSD has been higher again today, extending the recovery rally from the collapse below the .6761 level. Price has since broken back above the level and is now eyeing a retest of the .6830 level next. The surprise .50% cut by the RBNZ earlier in the week caused a large shift higher in AUDNZD which is still supporting AUD today.