UK fiscal watchdog to forecast 2020 UK recession (if no deal Brexit) – more detail


The headline on the article projecting a collapse into recession for the UK next year is here:

The Times piece is gated, but a bit more:

  • The Office for Budget Responsibility’s (OBR) expected to say the economy will fall into a recession next year
  • economy will be 3% smaller in the event of a “no-deal” Brexit,

OBR to lay out
and analyse risks to the medium-term outlook for Britain’s public

  • will model a fiscal “stress test” on the economy
  • will use the International Monetary Fund’s modelling of a no-deal Brexit in its analysis
  • IMF warned … loss of at least 2-3 years of normal growth between now and the end of 2021 if it leaves the European Union without an exit deal
  • even in a relatively orderly no-deal Brexit scenario the economy would grow 3.5% less by the end of 2021 than it would under a smoother Brexit

Via Reuters  

Once he conquers the EU he’ll take on Japan


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