The two ‘headlines’ are employment change and the unemployment rate.
Employment Change: +42.3K HUGE BEAT
- expected +16.0K,
Unemployment Rate: 5.2% and this is a miss!
- expected 5.1%,
Full Time Employment
- prior was -6.3K
Part Time Employment
- prior was +34.7K
Participation Rate: 66.0% (this jump will be used to explain higher u/e)
- expected 65.8%,
prior was 65.8%
… the full time / part time split will be a detraction from the big jump in the headline employment change
Well, that’s a messy set of headlines! I would say something for everyone but this might be more case of nothing for anyone?
The “trend’ data (the above is the seasonally adjusted, which attracts the first attention, but paying heed to the trend results is worthwhile also):
- trend participation rate increased to 65.9 per cent in May 2019, a new high
- trend unemployment rate remained steady at 5.1 per cent, for the third consecutive month
- trend monthly employment increased by around 28,000
- both full-time and part-time employment increased by 14,000 persons
- Over the past year, trend employment increased by 333,000 persons (2.7 per cent) which was above the average annual growth over the past 20 years (2.0 per cent)
- trend monthly hours worked increased by 0.2 per cent in May 2019 and by 2.5 per cent over the past year. This was above the 20 year average year-on-year growth of 1.7 per cent
- trend monthly underemployment rate rose slightly to 8.5 per cent in May, returning to the same level as May 2018. The trend underutilisation rate decreased by 0.3 percentage points over the year.
more to come