Cans of Molson Coors Brewing Co. Miller Lite and Coors Light brand beer
Daniel Acker | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Here are the biggest calls on Wall Street on Monday:
Credit Suisse initiated Molson Coors as ‘underperform’
Credit Suisse said the issue with the company is its brand portfolio rather than marketing or management, and that the situation is unlikely to get better.
“We believe the company faces significant hurdles in overcoming its portfolio exposure, and fear the time for bold decisions has passed. Shares have fallen 40% since YE 2016 as fundamentals in nearly every region deteriorated, with no clear path toward stabilization in our view. A levered balance sheet limits bold decision making. TAP shares trade at a 30% discount to the global peer group on an NTM EV/EBITDA basis. We think the discount is justified. In our Blue Sky scenario, shares could reach $71 (12x ’23e EBITDA of $2.6bn discounted at 8%) based on +2% total revenue growth and improved profitability, or strategic action. In a Grey Sky scenario, shares fall to $43 (10x ’23e EBITDA of $2.3bn discounted at 8%) based on further U.S. mainstream light beer volume deterioration and no improvement in profitability. “
Stephens upgraded Redfin to ‘overweight’ from ‘underweight’
Stephens upgraded the real estate brokerage based on valuation and the prospects for more e-commerce offerings in the real estate space.
“We are upgrading RDFN to Overweight from Underweight and raising our price target to $23 (up from $18). We have come to better appreciate RDFN’s market position/strategy and a handful of its newer offerings. We also believe that the Company is beginning to lay the groundwork for a more e-commerce type offering (Redfin Direct, Redfin Now, packaged ancillary services, etc.). In addition, we see a very favorable NT set up as the stock has dropped into a more enticing valuation/buying window, many of its top markets are in the process of recovering from a tough 2H18 fallout and we see improved operating results moving forward, starting with impressive 2Q19 results. Lastly, we believe that RDFN has the type of model that can thrive in today’s real estate ecosystem or one that is dramatically altered (ex. lower commission rates, limited buyer’s agent involvement, etc.). “
Goldman Sachs upgraded Analog Devices to ‘buy’ from ‘sell’
Goldman said the end of a cyclical correction is getting closer and that the semiconductor company has “idiosyncratic” revenue drivers.
“We upgrade ADI to Buy from Sell with an updated 12-month price target of $114 (13% potential upside). First and foremost, we acknowledge that our Sell thesis on the stock — which was predicated on our guarded view towards the analog semiconductor cycle and relatively stretched valuation — has not worked. CY19/20 EPS consensus estimates declined 14%/8% since our downgrade on 10/18/18 (Exhibit 1), in line with the deterioration in the overall Analog space. However, since being added to the Sell list, the stock rose 21% vs. the median Semiconductor stock in our coverage group up 12% and S&P500 up ~4% during this time frame. “
Credit Suisse upgraded Sirius XM Holdings to ‘outperform’ from ‘neutral’
Credit Suisse said the risk/reward opportunity is attractive.
“With the Pandora acquisition behind it, solid operating trends (’19E: 1m net adds despite SAAR down 3% y/y, stable 1.8% churn despite continued ~2% ARPU growth, EBITDA growth to accelerate), and a powerful buyback (CSe $2b, 28% of float), SIRI‘s price has fallen to the point where the risk/reward opportunity is attractive in our view. “
Seaport Global upgraded United Technologies to ‘buy’ from ‘neutral’
Seaport said the United Technologies and Raytheon merger, which was announced last night, is a “compelling” combination.
“We are upgrading UTX to Buy from Neutral and establishing a $165 price target. Sunday, UTX and RTN announced a merger-of-equals (UTX owning 57% / RTN owning 43%). The merger is expected to close in 1H:20 after the completion of UTX’s portfolio split (Otis/Carrier). At first glance, UTX/RTN offers a compelling combination in large defense growth verticals (hypersonics, ISR, directed energy) as well as commercial aerospace where RTN’s cyber & AI/ML augments UTX’s battle with OEM’s (BA/Airbus). However, parallels with the other recent defense mega-deal HRS/LLL, and the growing importance of quasi-commercial capabilities offers upside to the $500MM synergy target, in our opinion. The Pentagon is increasingly rewarding commercial development/cycle speed, which also allows commercial margin profiles. Therefore, the integration of RTN with UTX’s commercial infrastructure is ahead of the curve. Net/net, our $165 price target is supported by UTX’s SOTP as a base case; and further, the UTX/RTN merger of equals is a strategic necessity offering upside as the Pentagon rewards commercial development. “