GBPUSD bounces off lows after trend lower stalls

Technical Analysis

Move below 50% fails

The GBPUSD has been trending lower, helped by a weaker than expected GDP. The pair tumbled below the 100 hour MA on the report, and after a pause at the 100 bar MA on the 4-hour chart at 1.26814, the pair fell below that level (and the 38.2%).  The 200 hour MA and the 50% retracement level was also broken. However we have now seen a rebound above the level.  

The pair is up retesting the 38.2% and the 100 bar MA on the 4 hour chart at 1.26805-844 area.  Can it stay below?  That willl be the test now.   

If it holds, gettnig back below the 200 hour MA will be key.

Drilling to the 5 minute chart below, the buyers are trying to keep the price above that 200 hour MA at the 1.2667 level (see lower green line), but they are also staying below that 100 bar MA on the 4-hour chart. 

There is a mini-battle going on. 

On a move higher, the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute comes in at 1.26805, and then the 100 hour MA at 1.2702 and falling 200 bar MA on the 5 minute at 1.2705 become targets.  The 200 bar MA on the 5 minute stalled the rallly on the move higher before the GDP data in the UK today. I would expect sellers to show up in that area IF this close risk level can be broken.

GBPUSD on the 5 minute chart.


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