Scanning through TD’s preview of the Australian employment report.
Pretty dour reading.
It begins with a recap of the wages data yesterday:
- Q1 Wage Price Index…. marginally weaker than expected … challenges the RBA base case that wage growth is expected to gradually improve. In reality it has stopped dead.
- … reports continue to underwhelm RBA expectations/targets
- US-China trade tape bombs have weighed down the AUD, forcing it through $US0.700 support earlier this month
- … employment report. We look for +17k
- but the risks are tilted towards part-time employment and a pickup in the unemployment rate to 5.1%
- This outcome can be expected to keep weighing on the AUD
TD’s call is for the RBA to cut rates in August and then again in November.
Earlier posts of relevance to the AUD. Jobs data previews:
The wages data ICYMI: