RBA minutes: Likelihood of near term rate hike is low, Aussie slips


The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) published the minutes of its April 2 2019 monetary policy meeting on Tuesday, with the key headlines found below.  

Likelihood of near term rise in rates low.

Minutes board saw no strong case for near-term move in interest rates.

Rate cut would be “appropriate” if inflation stayed low, unemployment trended up.

Given subdued inflation, the likelihood of a near-term rise in rates was “low”.

Board agreed on inflation likely to remain muted for some time.

The economic effect of lower rate cuts likely to be smaller than in the past.

But would support the economy via lower A$, reduced interest payments on loans.

Board agreed it was not possible to “fine-tune” policy outcomes.

Board would monitor how the tension between jobs strength, slow growth played out.

Expected further gradual progress on unemployment and inflation.

Marked slowdown in GDP growth at odds with improvement in labor market.

Income-based GDP weaker than expenditure noted faster growth in tax payments.

Dwelling investment had passed its peak, a large amount of work still in the pipeline.

Outlook for drought-hit farm sector had improved since the Feb SoMP.

Fall in house prices, home turnover had hit sales of vehicles, home furnishings.

Global financial conditions had eased, China stimulus having an impact.

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