GBP Traders Waiting For EU Decision on Brexit Extension
GBPUSD trading has become very stagnant over recent days as traders await the outcome of the current round of Brexit negotiations. The UK is due to leave the EU on Friday, though it now looks like the PM’s further extension request will be granted by the EU. Leaders are meeting today to discuss the situation.
May has asked for an extension until June, though the EU is reportedly considering offering a one-year extension. Such an outcome would likely be a big boost for GBPUSD which is still languishing at the bottom of the 1.30 – 1.33 range.
US CPI & FOMC Minutes in Focus
Over the European morning on Wednesday, the US Dollar continued its drift lower, posting a third consecutive day of red, as of writing. The USD index is now challenging the 96.57 with a very heavy tone to the day’s trading. Looking ahead to today’s US session, there is plenty of event risk.
Both the March CPI and March FOMC meeting minutes are due for release. CPI is expected to improve from last month’s reading, while the FOMC minutes are expected to pour further light on the current state of the US economy. So, we could have a mixed USD outcome from today’s data.
EUR Higher on Weak USD
EURUSD continues to take advantage of a weaker USD. Despite ongoing concerns around the health of the eurozone economy, as well as the uncertainty from Brexit, EUR has risen against USD today, trading up to 1.1278 last.
Today, traders are waiting for the ECB’s April meeting which could see the bank introducing a tiered deposit scheme for banks while reaffirming its view of concern regarding the economy and the need for rates to stay on hold.
Better Risk Appetite Boosts Equities
Equities prices are trading a little higher today, following a pullback yesterday. USD weakness along with the prospect of Brexit being delayed by a year have boosted optimism once again, leading to better risk sentiment. SPX500 traded 2883.68 last, still well above the 2860.11 support level.
Safe Havens Mixed
Gold prices have continued their recent winning streak into a fifth consecutive day today as a weaker USD allows the recovery to continue. Price is now trading 1304.05, sitting just below yesterday’s session highs. A weak CPI print or further dovishness from the FOMC minutes tonight could provide the platform for a proper move higher in gold.
Despite the weaker USD, USDJPY traded a little higher though likely as a result of technical buying off the 111.10 level support. The FOMC minutes later will be key in determining which way price breaks from here.
Traders Await EIA Report
Oil prices, while still up on the week, saw a retracement lower yesterday as the weekly API report indicated a further build in US crude stocks. However, price has since recovered and is trading in the green again ahead of the weekly EIA report due later today. For now, price is sitting just under the 64.36 level resistance.
Commodity Currencies Still Mixed
The commodity currencies are mixed again today as, despite the continued rally in oil and weakness in USD, USDCAD rose again today. After testing the 1.3294 support yesterday and briefly piercing the level, buyers have stepped in to take price back up for now. AUDUSD, however, is higher today and is once again testing the .7147 resistance which, if broken, will put focus onto the .7237 level next.