Canada: GDP growth to rebound in the second quarter – CIBC


Analysts at CIBC, expect the Canadian real GDP to grow at an annualized rate of 1.3% during the first quarter, 2.5% in Q2, 2.0 in Q3 and 1.7 in Q4. 

Key Quotes: 

“The Canadian economy slowed toward the end of 2018, and appears set for a sluggish start in 2019 as well with GDP growth expected to come in below a 1% annualized pace for a second consecutive quarter. However, some of the weakness expected in Q1 stems from the mandated production cuts in the oil patch, and recent job market and manufacturing shipments data suggest that outside of that area the economy could be improving again.”

“We’d expect to see a bounce-back in the second quarter and have only downgraded our 2019 GDP forecast by a few ticks. The strong employment numbers haven’t changed forecasts for the unemployment rate, given that labour force participation has risen as well.”


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