Annette Beacher, chief Asia-Pacific macro strategist at TD Securities, suggests that the RBA Governor speech to the National Press Club revealed a more neutral stance than that suggested in yesterday’s RBA Board policy statement.
“On the lack of “the next move is up” that market participants were looking for, AUD slides 80 pips to $US0.716 and OIS pricing jumps to 70% risk of a cut by November.”
“If housing and consumption need support that scenario suggests cut. The TD view is that housing is ‘correcting’, rate cuts likely ineffective, and wage increases are coming. After a long pause, the next move is up.”
“Dr Lowe claimed that the housing boom was “driven mostly by lack of supply”.”