GBPUSD volatility continues (not surprising). Back near the middle of the range.

Technical Analysis

Lows from 2018 stall the early fall

The GBPUSD fell in the Asia-Pacific session and in doing so approached the lows for 2018 at 1.26612 (from August) and yesterday (at 1.2658).  The low today reached 1.2670.

The holding above those lows suggested buyers were leaning against the lows. They won. The sellers turned to buyers.  The price started to move back higher.

Technically, the rise took the price back above the some swing levels at 1.2747-53, the 100 hour MA (blue line) and the 200 hour MA (green line ) on the move to the 50% midpoint of the range since November 22 at 1.2792.  The high reached 1.27965 (just below 1.2800).  

What now?

We trade between the 100 and 200 hour MAs at 1.27514 and 1.27745. The hourly bars above the 200 hour MA have not been able to muster a close above the level.  A trade might be to lean against the upper MA.  You would hoping for a break below the 100 hour MA (and 1.27474 level).  

The story in the GBPUSD is mostly focused on the Brexit vote on December 11. The horses will jockey for position. The traders will likely lean against lows and highs.  Yesterday, the pair stopped near trend lines at the highs. Today and yesterday, the price stalled at year lows.   

It can be a crap shot on where the levels are but if you see levels that make sense to you, they likely mean something to other traders as well.  If you believe that traders lean to define and limit risk and “risk a little to make more than a little”, you may “make more than a little” on your trades.  


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