USDJPY can’t run much above 100 hour MA in up and down day

Technical Analysis

Market is trying to figure out the direction for the USDJPY

The USDJPY moved higher early in the day, on the back of risk on trade flows off the US/China news. The price rise moved above the 113.649-699 area. That area was a swing level from last week (bullish above./bearish below).  The price momentum stalled. The price moved back below the 100 hour MA (blue line) . The low reached the 38.2% of the move up from the November 20 low. 

The price bounce has moved back to the 100 hour MA (blue line). That MA line comes in at 113.567. The price over the last few hours have waffled above and below the  level, but momentum higher is not exactly running.  Are sellers leaning?  It seems that way.  Risk level for shorts now as is the 113.649-699 area.   Stay below is more bearish.  Move above and stay above, and the bias tilts higher again.

ON the downside, there are some KEY targets.  

The 38.2% is one, but just below that is the lower trend line and the 200 hour MA at 113.335.  Below that, the low from last week is near the 50% and other swing levels (at 113.14-177).  Get below those levels and the bias shifts more to the downside.

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