Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: Dollar moves higher as G20 begins


Forex news for NY trading on November 30, 2018

IN other markets at the end of the trading week:

  • Spot gold fell $2.34 or -0.21% at $1221.76
  • WTI crude oil futures fell $-.72 or -1.40% at $50.73> The price traded above and below the $50 level this week. For the month prices fell 22%. Ouch. 
  • Bitcoin is going out on a bearish note with the digital currency down $-254 and $3127.67. Moreover the price is that below it’s 100 and 200 hour moving averages
For the US stocks today, the major indices all closed higher for the day. For the week, the S&P and Nasdaq had the best week in over 7 years. The Dow had the best week since November 2016.  The Nasdaq was the best performer at +5.64% for the week.  The Australian S&P/ASX 200 index was the only major index lower on the week. 

In what was a harsh month to the downside, the rally over the last 7-8 days was able to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat.  Each of the major indices in the US ended the month with gains.   That was not the case for some of the European indices – the German Dax fell -1.66%., the France’s CAC fell -1.76%. The UK FTSE, fell -2.07%.

IN the US debt market today, the yields continued it’s fall led by the longer end. The 2-10 year spread is back below the 20 bp level as expectations for hike in 2019 eased after Powell’s comments on Wednesday that rates were “just below” the neutral rate.   The Fed is still expected to raise rates at their December meeting, and should the US/China square up differences or employment change next Friday, come out with another stellar number (exp 199K), the 2019 view can change in a heartbeat.  Time will tell, but like the Fed, the market is largely data dependent. 

European 10 year benchmark yields moved lower today (with the exception of Italy which rose 1 bp).   The Italy to Germany spread did come back below the 300 bp level this week after hopes for a more favorable budget emerged from the country.

Economically, the Chicago PMI index was much higher than expected. That and some comments out of the G20 of progress with China, helped to push the USD higher. It ended the session up against all the major currencies with the exception of the NZD.  

The USDJPY today kept found support against a trend line in the early part of the day but found sellers against a swing area at 113.649-113.699 in the NY afternoon session (see post here). The price moved to 113.50 into the close for the week. 

For the week (see the charts below), the NZD and AUD were the strongest of the major currencies on the back of “risk on” optimism and higher stocks (at least in the US).   The weakest currency was the GBP  on concerns about Brexit.  The USD rose modestly vs the EUR, GBP, JPY, CHF and CAD and fell vs. the AUD and the NZD.  

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