ANZ market outlook – ”roiled by slowing growth, rising rates”(also on Brexit)


ANZ with comments on market volatility, citing (this in broief from a long report)

  • GLI fell into negative territory in October for the first time in over two years
  • More slowing in industrial momentum is likely
  • This story is in stark contrast to the end of last year/start of this year when our indicator was well above trend


  • Although there has been a moderate bounce in global trade recently, our lead indicators suggest that this is likely to prove to be a ‘dead cat’ bounce.·
  • G3 core inflation pressures are intensifying as wages lift amid diminishing slack in labour markets. That said, outside the US core inflation remains below central bank targets.·
  • The US Fed isn’t far from neutral, and increasingly the talk is about how much the Fed may need to take the fed funds rate past neutral. With US financial conditions still very stimulatory, the Fed is unlikely to be perturbed by recent market volatility.

And, just plucking out this specific comment on Brexit  

  • We remain cautiously optimistic that an agreement will be passed. GBP should perform well in that environment. Sharp GBP falls are expected on “no deal”.


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